Post by Los Angeles Lakers on Jan 31, 2008 19:37:45 GMT -5
41
Manny Parra
LHP
Milwaukee Brewers
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
25
Parra had spent most of his pro career battling arm injuries before a mostly healthy 2007 that saw him throw a perfect game and throw more than 100 innings in a season for just the second time. He would have set his career high had it not been for a broken thumb suffered at the end of August, ending his season. He has a solid three-pitch mix, including a slightly above-average fastball at 89-94 mph with some run, a slurvy breaking ball he buries down and in to right-handed hitters, and a solid-to-average changeup at 81-83 mph. His arm is quick, but there is some effort and length in his delivery, which might explain all the arm problems he has had. He projects as a No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy and refine his command.
42
Carlos Gonzalez
CF/RF
Oakland A's
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Tucson)
22
Gonzalez, the centerpiece of Oakland's haul in the Dan Haren trade, still has not seen his performance catch up to his tools. He has a smooth, simple, left-handed swing that should generate a ton of contact, but he is too pull-oriented and leaves himself exposed on the outer half. He already has 55 power and projects to have more as he fills out, but he will need to continue to work on his pitch recognition and approach to get to that level. On defense, he played mostly right field in the Arizona system, which was chock-full of center fielders, but he could return to center in the Oakland organization, giving him some star potential. He has an average arm for right field, but he gets good reads off the ball and should be fine in center if the A's choose to put him there.
43
Chase Headley
3B
San Diego Padres
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
23
Headley was one of the best performers in the minors in 2007, raising his profile from a potential No. 2 hitter (due to his extraordinary strike-zone judgment) to a potential middle-of-the-order bat. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination to go with that plate discipline, and that has more than made up for average bat speed to date, although you still will catch him cheating on better fastballs. He showed newfound power in 2007, the result of an offseason weight-training program, although even with the added muscle, he probably is limited to a 20-25 home run ceiling in the majors. His defense at third base is no worse than average and would be a significant improvement over Kevin Kouzmanoff's, making rumors of Headley's move to left field to accommodate the stone-handed Kouzmanoff silly.
44
Jeff Clement
C
Seattle Mariners
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Clement is the same hitter today he was in college -- an extremely pull-oriented hitter with a hammer-throw swing and a big weakness on pitches middle-out. But his power is big enough that if he can provide Mike Piazza-like defense behind the plate, he will be an everyday catcher in the majors. Clement, a left-handed hitter, does show the potential to at least use the left-center gap, but he might be too old to change a one-note approach. Behind the plate, Clement is barely adequate as a receiver or a thrower, and he has had on-and-off elbow trouble that gives us reason to think he won't be anything more than that. Catchers who can pop 25-plus homers are rare commodities, so look for Clement to end up a starter somewhere.
45
Ian Kennedy
RHP
New York Yankees
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
23
Kennedy's stuff alone would put him in the lower reaches of this list. He is here because he has superb command of average or fringe-average stuff, so superb that he is going to succeed in the majors where many guys with superior stuff will fail. He works with a fringe-average fastball that touches 90 mph on occasion but mostly falls in the 87-88 mph range, and he commands it to all four edges of the zone. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, slightly above average with some tailing action, but it works extremely well because he keeps his arm speed consistent. His curve is solidly average as well. Kennedy repeats his delivery as well as any prospect on this list, commands all of his pitches and has a great feel for pitching. With plus stuff, he would be in the top 10 overall, but with his stuff, he will have to settle for an upside as a borderline No. 3 starter or a great No. 4 starter.
46
Michael Main
RHP
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Spokane)
19
Main, one of the top two-way talents in the 2007 draft, could have been a first-rounder as a hitter but was a definite first-rounder off the bump. On his best days, he will pitch 95-96 mph and hit 98 mph, and on his worst days, he will pitch at 92-95 and hit 97. His power curve has a sharp downward bite, and he is becoming more consistent with the pitch, while his changeup also is showing progress. He is a superb athlete who probably could serve as a fifth outfielder in the big leagues if the manager were willing to be clever with his bench. Main repeats his delivery well, and with improvement in his command and secondary pitches, he has a shot to develop into a No. 1 starter. Right now, he projects as a No. 2 or 3.
47
Mike Moustakas
SS (?)
Kansas City Royals
TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Idaho Falls)
19
Moustakas was an exciting two-way prospect in the draft and had a lot of hype in late spring because of his performances as a hitter and pitcher. He is up to 97 mph off the mound with a sharp slider that projects as plus, but he is short (in baseball terms) with a non-traditional build for a pitcher, so the Royals took him as a position player. He has great bat speed and good hand-eye coordination with a solid two-strike approach. He has line-drive power and projects to hit for average and doubles rather than homers. His biggest problem is the lack of a clear position. He's not a shortstop, and he's only going to get bigger, which might preclude second base as well. He could slide to third base, given his arm strength, but the hot corner is occupied in Kansas City, and conceivably, he could become too big to stay anywhere in the infield. The Royals have indicated they don't wish to push him behind the plate, a position for which he is ideally built, as the transition would push back his ETA a year or two. The positional question holds down his value as a prospect.
48
German Duran
2B/3B
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Frisco)
23
Duran wasn't a highly regarded hitting prospect out of Texas Christian University in 2005, going in the sixth round, 16 picks behind potential 2008 first-rounder Lance Lynn. But he exploded on the scene in 2007 with strong showings in Double-A, the Futures Game and the Arizona Fall League. He has a very quick bat and takes a short path to the ball, centering very well. He is so strong up top that he drives balls out to left and left-center, helped by excellent follow-through in his swing. He has plenty of arm for third base and has average range at second base, giving the Rangers plenty of flexibility on his future position.
49
Reid Brignac
SS
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Montgomery)
22
After a huge 2006 season, Brignac regressed at the plate in 2007, but he still projects as an everyday shortstop in the majors. His setup at the plate is unusual, with his hands starting high and back over his shoulder, which takes away some of the benefit of his plus bat speed by creating length in his swing. He doesn't keep his body in line with his swing -- he mistimes his hips, and he doesn't keep his head steady. So why is he here? Because he is strong with quick wrists, good bat speed, above-average power and good range at shortstop. He will be an offensive shortstop in the majors, and he is athletic enough to improve somewhat in the field, which would make him a borderline All-Star.
50
Hu Chin-Lung
SS
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Hu has an incredible combination of defensive ability and instincts that should net him a long career in the majors. His ceiling is entirely determined by how much he hits, and the jury on that one is still out. He has good bat speed and excellent bat control, putting the ball in play and trying to pepper the outfield with line drives. He needs to show this year that he can turn on some hard stuff inside. He never is going to hit for power, and his OBPs always will be driven by batting average. In the field, Hu is a wizard and a future fan favorite. He has plus range in both directions and a strong, accurate arm. But best of all is his natural feel for the game and constant awareness of game situations. If he keeps getting stronger, he should be an All-Star shortstop at the big league level who competes for Gold Gloves.
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51
Ross Detwiler
LHP
Washington Nationals
TOP '07 LEVEL: *Majors
22
Detwiler is a polished lefty from Missouri State who should move quickly through the Nats' system, although the Nationals' decision to recall him in September was a bit enthusiastic (and shortsighted, since it put him on the 40-man roster sooner than necessary). Detwiler is tall and thin, but has broad shoulders and should be durable despite concerns about his slight build at the moment. His fastball is already above average at 90-94 and flashes plus, and his slider projects as an out pitch if he can stay on top of it consistently, giving it a sharp, late bite. He has a solid-average changeup with good arm speed to fill out his repertoire, as well as a show-me curve. He's a strike thrower with good feel, so while his ceiling is limited to mid-rotation duty, he's a high-probability prospect who should be in Washington's rotation soon.
52
James McDonald
RHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Jacksonville)
23
McDonald signed as a pitcher as a draft-and-follow prospect, hurt his arm, moved to the outfield, hurt his coaches by not hitting a lick and moved back to the mound, where he's hurt opposing hitters by racking up K's like there might be a run on the strikeout banks. McDonald is Clay Buchholz Lite: average fastball or slightly below, above-average curve and changeup, good control and feel for pitching. His curve gets swings and misses in the minors, but it's a bit of a slow roller and he'll have to use it more sparingly in the big leagues unless he can tighten its rotation.
53
Carlos Carrasco
RHP
Philadelphia Phillies
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Reading)
21
The Phillies' system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco's best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it's possible to project him as someone who'll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.
54
Matt Dominguez
3B
Florida Marlins
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Jamestown)
18
Dominguez is a solid offensive and defensive infielder with a chance to be a star in both aspects of the game. He's somewhat raw for a California product, but has a quick bat and good straightaway raw power. He tends to drift through his swing rather than gathering his weight and powering through the ball, something that can be fixed through instruction. At third, he has a plus arm and reads the ball well off the bat, and he projects as a Gold Glove-caliber defender down the road.
55
Jed Lowrie
SS/2B
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Pawtucket)
23
Lowrie has transformed himself since his time as a second baseman at Stanford, where he put up excellent offensive stats with an extreme metal-bat swing and was below-average defensively. Now he's a capable hitter from both sides of the plate with a real (that means wood) bat, and he's good enough defensively to handle shortstop every day in the majors. Lowrie centers the ball extremely well -- the one thing that has carried over from college -- and takes a short path to the ball. He shows more strength in his swing from the right side, but his left-handed swing is very compact with good extension at the end, and he should be a legitimate switch-hitter in the majors. On defense, his range should be adequate at short, and his transfer on the double play is lightning-quick. He could step in right now and play short (or second) for a number of big league clubs, and he has to be putting pressure on the Sox to think about moving Julio Lugo.
56
Joey Votto
1B
Cincinnati Reds
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Votto is similar to the player he'll eventually replace in Cincinnati, Scott Hatteberg, but with a bit more power. Votto's calling card is his plate discipline, as he's drawn at least 69 unintentional walks in four of his five full seasons in the pros. He has a max-effort swing that produces average to slightly above-average power, and while he stays back well on the ball, he has a hard time changing his swing once he's committed to a pitch. He's average defensively at first but looked somewhat Ryan Klesko-esque in a trial in left field last year.
57
Fautino
de los Santos
RHP
Oakland A's
TOP '07 LEVEL:
A (Winston-Salem)
22
De los Santos was the potential star among the three players the A's received from the White Sox for Nick Swisher. He's a two-pitch pitcher with a 91-95 mph fastball with some late life and a hard breaking ball with a sharp 11-to-5 break. His command is below average, and he has a tendency to leave his front shoulder open, especially when throwing the breaking ball, and he doesn't have a solid third pitch. At worst, he projects as a power two-pitch reliever in a set-up or closer role, but he has a chance to mature into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
58
Justin Masterson
RHP
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Portland)
23
Masterson has worked primarily as a starter in college and in the minors, but his future is in the bullpen. He's a two-pitch pitcher who comes from a low three-quarter slot, generating plus sink on a fastball that's 85-89 mph when he's pitching in the rotation but has been comfortably in the low 90s when he's relieved in the past. He has a tight low-80s slider with a short and very sharp break that gives him his best chance to miss bats. His changeup is well below average, and it's hard to turn a pitch like that over from his arm slot; as a result, lefties have hit him increasingly hard as he's moved up the ladder. He should appear in the Red Sox's pen this year.
59
Tim Alderson
RHP
San Francisco Giants
TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Ariz.)
19
Alderson's an odd bird, working from the stretch even with no one on base. His fastball is already solid-average at 90-94 mph, with more velocity to come down the road. He pounds the strike zone and shows good command. His best secondary pitch is a hard curveball with tight rotation and a late two-plane break, while his changeup is a ways off. Alderson comes at hitters from a low three-quarter slot, and his arm is very quick, so the ball pops out of his hand and gets in on hitters quickly. He has some minor mechanical issues that will require work, including a slightly stiff front leg and a tendency to throw across his body to get deep to his glove side, but nothing that would prevent him from becoming a No. 2 or 3 starter in the majors.
60
Eric Hurley
RHP
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Okla. City)
22
Hurley projects more as a two-pitch reliever than as a starter in the big leagues, although the Rangers will probably give him a shot in the rotation before they force a conversion. He has a fastball just above average, 91-94, touching 95, and a power slider with good tilt and depth. His delivery leaves a lot to be desired, as there's a fair amount of effort required and he doesn't get his lower half involved, and he has yet to develop an adequate third pitch to get lefties out consistently. He also has a tendency to get under the ball, which will lead to a lot of home runs in Arlington. The arm is live, he throws strikes and he works well to both sides of the plate, so he's going to have success in some role, but he'll need at least a third pitch to earn a spot in the rotation.
61
J.R. Towles
C
Houston Astros
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Towles has had little trouble hitting for average throughout his pro career, but it will be interesting to see what he does when consistently facing big league pitching. Towles sets up with a big, deep load and almost locks his lead elbow; as a result, his plate coverage isn't great and he struggles to reach the ball down, getting very long with an exaggerated finish just to reach balls in the lower third of the zone. He's a dead-pull hitter, which is a good thing for a right-handed bat in Houston's ballpark, but he'll have to show he can adjust to the ball away as well as down. His arm is fringe-average and he's an adequate plate blocker, but isn't plus in any aspect of his defense. Given his performance history, he should be at least an everyday catcher in the majors, but he's not a star and may settle in as a barely average regular.
62
Nick Weglarz
LF
Cleveland Indians
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Kinston)
20
Weglarz is still young and a good three or four years off, but he's showing signs of developing into a middle-of-the-order bat. Weglarz has a patient approach and works to get to a pitch he can drive, either to pull or hit to the opposite field. He has quick wrists and centers balls well, and generates some power through the natural loft in his swing, but needs to work on powering through the ball rather than striding first and then connecting. In left field he's a work in progress and may end up at first base, where developing that home run power will be more critical.
63
Brett Cecil
LHP
Toronto Blue Jays
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Auburn)
21
Cecil is one of the best pure-closer prospects in the minors, although it's not out of the question that Toronto could try to convert him to the rotation. Cecil has two plus pitches already in a 91-94 mph fastball with good bore and a sharp, diving 83-86 mph slider, and his curveball has good depth and isn't far from average already. His arm action is a bit long, but it's fluid and he repeats his delivery well in relief. He made two starts for Maryland last spring, going over 140 pitches in his first one -- gotta love college coaches -- and he does have the size most teams want to see in a starter. If he stays in the pen, he should move quickly and could debut in the majors this year.
64
Chris Marrero
1B
Washington Nationals
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Potomac)
19
Marrero is a classic "stuck at first base" player -- can't play anywhere else and isn't a plus defender at first -- who will have to hit his way to the big leagues. His best tool is his power, both to pull and to the opposite field, but the rest of his game has holes. His bat is somewhat slow and his swing is long, making it questionable whether he'll be able to show power against better stuff in the high minors. His defense at first is adequate but won't be an asset. He's here because there's a good chance he hits 25-30 homers once he gets to the majors, but the rest of his skill set will keep him from being a star.
65
Felipe Paulino
RHP
Houston Astros
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
A converted infielder, Paulino has reportedly hit triple digits in the past, and he'd probably do so again as a reliever, which is his ultimate role. Working as a starter, Paulino has a 93-94 mph four-seamer that's true but has some late life, allowing him to miss some bats in the upper half of the zone. His potential out pitch is a hard 12-to-6 curve from 76 to 81 mph, with a sharp, late, downward break. It's not a consistent pitch for him, and when he relies on his four-seamer too heavily, hitters can sit on it, making him homer-prone. In relief, however, Paulino should see a tick up in velocity and be able to work more effectively without a third pitch.
66
Tommy Hanson
RHP
Atlanta Braves
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Myrtle Beach)
21
Atlanta took Hanson out of Riverside Junior College in 2005, paying him over $300,000 to buy him out of a scholarship to Arizona State, and he's the best pitching prospect remaining in the Braves' system after the massive Mark Teixeira deal last summer. Hanson already runs his fastball up to 91-95 mph, but at a somewhat slight 6-foot-6, he still has projection left in his body. He also features an above-average curveball and an average change, while his stuff plays up because he has good deception in his delivery. His arm action is fluid and his command is improving. He's a few years off, although Atlanta has tended to promote pitchers quickly once they show that their command is good enough to handle the next level.
67
Aaron Poreda
LHP
Chicago White Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL:
Rookie (Great Falls)
21
Poreda is still a project, but he brings one undeniable tool to the table. Left-handers with plus velocity (93-97 consistently, with anecdotal reports of 98 plus) and excellent sink to generate ground balls are rare birds, making Poreda a very good value for a late first-round selection. His secondary stuff remains raw. He's messed around with a curveball and slider, with the latter showing more promise, and his low three-quarter arm slot has made it hard for him to master a changeup. He's big and can hold his velocity, but the White Sox should move him slowly to give him time to develop at least one -- preferably two -- average offspeed pitches so he can fulfill his promise as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
68
Kyle Blanks
1B
San Diego Padres
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Lake Elsinore)
21
The Padres have been light on power-hitting prospects for several years now, preferring polished college hitters in the draft who bring more probability to the table but less upside. They snagged Kyle Blanks in the 42nd round in 2004 out of high school, and he exploded this year into their second-best offensive prospect. Blanks is strong and athletic at 6-foot-6; while he's limited to first base, he's more than playable there, but his ticket to the majors is his bat. He has a simple swing with good loft and powers through the ball, keeping his hips in almost perfect sync with his hands for maximum impact. Blanks' zone is big and he can get long when trying to cover pitches down, similar to Richie Sexson, who would be a good comparison for Blanks if the latter can improve his patience.
69
Chris Davis
3B
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Frisco)
22
We're comfortably in one-big-skill territory in this section of the rankings, and Davis has -- you guessed it -- one big skill: raw power that grades out comfortably at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Davis is extremely strong and powers balls out to right and right center with a pull-oriented approach. His plate discipline is weak and he's susceptible to even average offspeed stuff. His future at third is questionable, with a move to first the most likely outcome.
70
Ian Stewart
3B
Colorado Rockies
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
22
After his full-season debut Stewart looked like a No. 3 hitter with the potential to hit .300/.400/.550 when he reached his peak, but he's slid backward each year since, and now projects as more of a .280/.350/.440-type hitter who can contribute but isn't a star. Stewart has a lot of extra movement in his swing that limits his contact rate and robs him of some power before he reaches the ball, although he gets good extension when he squares a ball up. He's solid-average or better defensively at third and wouldn't be a drop-off in overall value from Garrett Atkins should the Rockies decide to trade their incumbent third baseman for other help.
Manny Parra
LHP
Milwaukee Brewers
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
25
Parra had spent most of his pro career battling arm injuries before a mostly healthy 2007 that saw him throw a perfect game and throw more than 100 innings in a season for just the second time. He would have set his career high had it not been for a broken thumb suffered at the end of August, ending his season. He has a solid three-pitch mix, including a slightly above-average fastball at 89-94 mph with some run, a slurvy breaking ball he buries down and in to right-handed hitters, and a solid-to-average changeup at 81-83 mph. His arm is quick, but there is some effort and length in his delivery, which might explain all the arm problems he has had. He projects as a No. 3 starter if he can stay healthy and refine his command.
42
Carlos Gonzalez
CF/RF
Oakland A's
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Tucson)
22
Gonzalez, the centerpiece of Oakland's haul in the Dan Haren trade, still has not seen his performance catch up to his tools. He has a smooth, simple, left-handed swing that should generate a ton of contact, but he is too pull-oriented and leaves himself exposed on the outer half. He already has 55 power and projects to have more as he fills out, but he will need to continue to work on his pitch recognition and approach to get to that level. On defense, he played mostly right field in the Arizona system, which was chock-full of center fielders, but he could return to center in the Oakland organization, giving him some star potential. He has an average arm for right field, but he gets good reads off the ball and should be fine in center if the A's choose to put him there.
43
Chase Headley
3B
San Diego Padres
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
23
Headley was one of the best performers in the minors in 2007, raising his profile from a potential No. 2 hitter (due to his extraordinary strike-zone judgment) to a potential middle-of-the-order bat. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination to go with that plate discipline, and that has more than made up for average bat speed to date, although you still will catch him cheating on better fastballs. He showed newfound power in 2007, the result of an offseason weight-training program, although even with the added muscle, he probably is limited to a 20-25 home run ceiling in the majors. His defense at third base is no worse than average and would be a significant improvement over Kevin Kouzmanoff's, making rumors of Headley's move to left field to accommodate the stone-handed Kouzmanoff silly.
44
Jeff Clement
C
Seattle Mariners
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Clement is the same hitter today he was in college -- an extremely pull-oriented hitter with a hammer-throw swing and a big weakness on pitches middle-out. But his power is big enough that if he can provide Mike Piazza-like defense behind the plate, he will be an everyday catcher in the majors. Clement, a left-handed hitter, does show the potential to at least use the left-center gap, but he might be too old to change a one-note approach. Behind the plate, Clement is barely adequate as a receiver or a thrower, and he has had on-and-off elbow trouble that gives us reason to think he won't be anything more than that. Catchers who can pop 25-plus homers are rare commodities, so look for Clement to end up a starter somewhere.
45
Ian Kennedy
RHP
New York Yankees
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
23
Kennedy's stuff alone would put him in the lower reaches of this list. He is here because he has superb command of average or fringe-average stuff, so superb that he is going to succeed in the majors where many guys with superior stuff will fail. He works with a fringe-average fastball that touches 90 mph on occasion but mostly falls in the 87-88 mph range, and he commands it to all four edges of the zone. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, slightly above average with some tailing action, but it works extremely well because he keeps his arm speed consistent. His curve is solidly average as well. Kennedy repeats his delivery as well as any prospect on this list, commands all of his pitches and has a great feel for pitching. With plus stuff, he would be in the top 10 overall, but with his stuff, he will have to settle for an upside as a borderline No. 3 starter or a great No. 4 starter.
46
Michael Main
RHP
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Spokane)
19
Main, one of the top two-way talents in the 2007 draft, could have been a first-rounder as a hitter but was a definite first-rounder off the bump. On his best days, he will pitch 95-96 mph and hit 98 mph, and on his worst days, he will pitch at 92-95 and hit 97. His power curve has a sharp downward bite, and he is becoming more consistent with the pitch, while his changeup also is showing progress. He is a superb athlete who probably could serve as a fifth outfielder in the big leagues if the manager were willing to be clever with his bench. Main repeats his delivery well, and with improvement in his command and secondary pitches, he has a shot to develop into a No. 1 starter. Right now, he projects as a No. 2 or 3.
47
Mike Moustakas
SS (?)
Kansas City Royals
TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Idaho Falls)
19
Moustakas was an exciting two-way prospect in the draft and had a lot of hype in late spring because of his performances as a hitter and pitcher. He is up to 97 mph off the mound with a sharp slider that projects as plus, but he is short (in baseball terms) with a non-traditional build for a pitcher, so the Royals took him as a position player. He has great bat speed and good hand-eye coordination with a solid two-strike approach. He has line-drive power and projects to hit for average and doubles rather than homers. His biggest problem is the lack of a clear position. He's not a shortstop, and he's only going to get bigger, which might preclude second base as well. He could slide to third base, given his arm strength, but the hot corner is occupied in Kansas City, and conceivably, he could become too big to stay anywhere in the infield. The Royals have indicated they don't wish to push him behind the plate, a position for which he is ideally built, as the transition would push back his ETA a year or two. The positional question holds down his value as a prospect.
48
German Duran
2B/3B
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Frisco)
23
Duran wasn't a highly regarded hitting prospect out of Texas Christian University in 2005, going in the sixth round, 16 picks behind potential 2008 first-rounder Lance Lynn. But he exploded on the scene in 2007 with strong showings in Double-A, the Futures Game and the Arizona Fall League. He has a very quick bat and takes a short path to the ball, centering very well. He is so strong up top that he drives balls out to left and left-center, helped by excellent follow-through in his swing. He has plenty of arm for third base and has average range at second base, giving the Rangers plenty of flexibility on his future position.
49
Reid Brignac
SS
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Montgomery)
22
After a huge 2006 season, Brignac regressed at the plate in 2007, but he still projects as an everyday shortstop in the majors. His setup at the plate is unusual, with his hands starting high and back over his shoulder, which takes away some of the benefit of his plus bat speed by creating length in his swing. He doesn't keep his body in line with his swing -- he mistimes his hips, and he doesn't keep his head steady. So why is he here? Because he is strong with quick wrists, good bat speed, above-average power and good range at shortstop. He will be an offensive shortstop in the majors, and he is athletic enough to improve somewhat in the field, which would make him a borderline All-Star.
50
Hu Chin-Lung
SS
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Hu has an incredible combination of defensive ability and instincts that should net him a long career in the majors. His ceiling is entirely determined by how much he hits, and the jury on that one is still out. He has good bat speed and excellent bat control, putting the ball in play and trying to pepper the outfield with line drives. He needs to show this year that he can turn on some hard stuff inside. He never is going to hit for power, and his OBPs always will be driven by batting average. In the field, Hu is a wizard and a future fan favorite. He has plus range in both directions and a strong, accurate arm. But best of all is his natural feel for the game and constant awareness of game situations. If he keeps getting stronger, he should be an All-Star shortstop at the big league level who competes for Gold Gloves.
RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION #AGE
51
Ross Detwiler
LHP
Washington Nationals
TOP '07 LEVEL: *Majors
22
Detwiler is a polished lefty from Missouri State who should move quickly through the Nats' system, although the Nationals' decision to recall him in September was a bit enthusiastic (and shortsighted, since it put him on the 40-man roster sooner than necessary). Detwiler is tall and thin, but has broad shoulders and should be durable despite concerns about his slight build at the moment. His fastball is already above average at 90-94 and flashes plus, and his slider projects as an out pitch if he can stay on top of it consistently, giving it a sharp, late bite. He has a solid-average changeup with good arm speed to fill out his repertoire, as well as a show-me curve. He's a strike thrower with good feel, so while his ceiling is limited to mid-rotation duty, he's a high-probability prospect who should be in Washington's rotation soon.
52
James McDonald
RHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Jacksonville)
23
McDonald signed as a pitcher as a draft-and-follow prospect, hurt his arm, moved to the outfield, hurt his coaches by not hitting a lick and moved back to the mound, where he's hurt opposing hitters by racking up K's like there might be a run on the strikeout banks. McDonald is Clay Buchholz Lite: average fastball or slightly below, above-average curve and changeup, good control and feel for pitching. His curve gets swings and misses in the minors, but it's a bit of a slow roller and he'll have to use it more sparingly in the big leagues unless he can tighten its rotation.
53
Carlos Carrasco
RHP
Philadelphia Phillies
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Reading)
21
The Phillies' system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco's best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it's possible to project him as someone who'll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.
54
Matt Dominguez
3B
Florida Marlins
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Jamestown)
18
Dominguez is a solid offensive and defensive infielder with a chance to be a star in both aspects of the game. He's somewhat raw for a California product, but has a quick bat and good straightaway raw power. He tends to drift through his swing rather than gathering his weight and powering through the ball, something that can be fixed through instruction. At third, he has a plus arm and reads the ball well off the bat, and he projects as a Gold Glove-caliber defender down the road.
55
Jed Lowrie
SS/2B
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Pawtucket)
23
Lowrie has transformed himself since his time as a second baseman at Stanford, where he put up excellent offensive stats with an extreme metal-bat swing and was below-average defensively. Now he's a capable hitter from both sides of the plate with a real (that means wood) bat, and he's good enough defensively to handle shortstop every day in the majors. Lowrie centers the ball extremely well -- the one thing that has carried over from college -- and takes a short path to the ball. He shows more strength in his swing from the right side, but his left-handed swing is very compact with good extension at the end, and he should be a legitimate switch-hitter in the majors. On defense, his range should be adequate at short, and his transfer on the double play is lightning-quick. He could step in right now and play short (or second) for a number of big league clubs, and he has to be putting pressure on the Sox to think about moving Julio Lugo.
56
Joey Votto
1B
Cincinnati Reds
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Votto is similar to the player he'll eventually replace in Cincinnati, Scott Hatteberg, but with a bit more power. Votto's calling card is his plate discipline, as he's drawn at least 69 unintentional walks in four of his five full seasons in the pros. He has a max-effort swing that produces average to slightly above-average power, and while he stays back well on the ball, he has a hard time changing his swing once he's committed to a pitch. He's average defensively at first but looked somewhat Ryan Klesko-esque in a trial in left field last year.
57
Fautino
de los Santos
RHP
Oakland A's
TOP '07 LEVEL:
A (Winston-Salem)
22
De los Santos was the potential star among the three players the A's received from the White Sox for Nick Swisher. He's a two-pitch pitcher with a 91-95 mph fastball with some late life and a hard breaking ball with a sharp 11-to-5 break. His command is below average, and he has a tendency to leave his front shoulder open, especially when throwing the breaking ball, and he doesn't have a solid third pitch. At worst, he projects as a power two-pitch reliever in a set-up or closer role, but he has a chance to mature into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
58
Justin Masterson
RHP
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Portland)
23
Masterson has worked primarily as a starter in college and in the minors, but his future is in the bullpen. He's a two-pitch pitcher who comes from a low three-quarter slot, generating plus sink on a fastball that's 85-89 mph when he's pitching in the rotation but has been comfortably in the low 90s when he's relieved in the past. He has a tight low-80s slider with a short and very sharp break that gives him his best chance to miss bats. His changeup is well below average, and it's hard to turn a pitch like that over from his arm slot; as a result, lefties have hit him increasingly hard as he's moved up the ladder. He should appear in the Red Sox's pen this year.
59
Tim Alderson
RHP
San Francisco Giants
TOP '07 LEVEL: Rookie (Ariz.)
19
Alderson's an odd bird, working from the stretch even with no one on base. His fastball is already solid-average at 90-94 mph, with more velocity to come down the road. He pounds the strike zone and shows good command. His best secondary pitch is a hard curveball with tight rotation and a late two-plane break, while his changeup is a ways off. Alderson comes at hitters from a low three-quarter slot, and his arm is very quick, so the ball pops out of his hand and gets in on hitters quickly. He has some minor mechanical issues that will require work, including a slightly stiff front leg and a tendency to throw across his body to get deep to his glove side, but nothing that would prevent him from becoming a No. 2 or 3 starter in the majors.
60
Eric Hurley
RHP
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Okla. City)
22
Hurley projects more as a two-pitch reliever than as a starter in the big leagues, although the Rangers will probably give him a shot in the rotation before they force a conversion. He has a fastball just above average, 91-94, touching 95, and a power slider with good tilt and depth. His delivery leaves a lot to be desired, as there's a fair amount of effort required and he doesn't get his lower half involved, and he has yet to develop an adequate third pitch to get lefties out consistently. He also has a tendency to get under the ball, which will lead to a lot of home runs in Arlington. The arm is live, he throws strikes and he works well to both sides of the plate, so he's going to have success in some role, but he'll need at least a third pitch to earn a spot in the rotation.
61
J.R. Towles
C
Houston Astros
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
Towles has had little trouble hitting for average throughout his pro career, but it will be interesting to see what he does when consistently facing big league pitching. Towles sets up with a big, deep load and almost locks his lead elbow; as a result, his plate coverage isn't great and he struggles to reach the ball down, getting very long with an exaggerated finish just to reach balls in the lower third of the zone. He's a dead-pull hitter, which is a good thing for a right-handed bat in Houston's ballpark, but he'll have to show he can adjust to the ball away as well as down. His arm is fringe-average and he's an adequate plate blocker, but isn't plus in any aspect of his defense. Given his performance history, he should be at least an everyday catcher in the majors, but he's not a star and may settle in as a barely average regular.
62
Nick Weglarz
LF
Cleveland Indians
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Kinston)
20
Weglarz is still young and a good three or four years off, but he's showing signs of developing into a middle-of-the-order bat. Weglarz has a patient approach and works to get to a pitch he can drive, either to pull or hit to the opposite field. He has quick wrists and centers balls well, and generates some power through the natural loft in his swing, but needs to work on powering through the ball rather than striding first and then connecting. In left field he's a work in progress and may end up at first base, where developing that home run power will be more critical.
63
Brett Cecil
LHP
Toronto Blue Jays
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Auburn)
21
Cecil is one of the best pure-closer prospects in the minors, although it's not out of the question that Toronto could try to convert him to the rotation. Cecil has two plus pitches already in a 91-94 mph fastball with good bore and a sharp, diving 83-86 mph slider, and his curveball has good depth and isn't far from average already. His arm action is a bit long, but it's fluid and he repeats his delivery well in relief. He made two starts for Maryland last spring, going over 140 pitches in his first one -- gotta love college coaches -- and he does have the size most teams want to see in a starter. If he stays in the pen, he should move quickly and could debut in the majors this year.
64
Chris Marrero
1B
Washington Nationals
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Potomac)
19
Marrero is a classic "stuck at first base" player -- can't play anywhere else and isn't a plus defender at first -- who will have to hit his way to the big leagues. His best tool is his power, both to pull and to the opposite field, but the rest of his game has holes. His bat is somewhat slow and his swing is long, making it questionable whether he'll be able to show power against better stuff in the high minors. His defense at first is adequate but won't be an asset. He's here because there's a good chance he hits 25-30 homers once he gets to the majors, but the rest of his skill set will keep him from being a star.
65
Felipe Paulino
RHP
Houston Astros
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
24
A converted infielder, Paulino has reportedly hit triple digits in the past, and he'd probably do so again as a reliever, which is his ultimate role. Working as a starter, Paulino has a 93-94 mph four-seamer that's true but has some late life, allowing him to miss some bats in the upper half of the zone. His potential out pitch is a hard 12-to-6 curve from 76 to 81 mph, with a sharp, late, downward break. It's not a consistent pitch for him, and when he relies on his four-seamer too heavily, hitters can sit on it, making him homer-prone. In relief, however, Paulino should see a tick up in velocity and be able to work more effectively without a third pitch.
66
Tommy Hanson
RHP
Atlanta Braves
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Myrtle Beach)
21
Atlanta took Hanson out of Riverside Junior College in 2005, paying him over $300,000 to buy him out of a scholarship to Arizona State, and he's the best pitching prospect remaining in the Braves' system after the massive Mark Teixeira deal last summer. Hanson already runs his fastball up to 91-95 mph, but at a somewhat slight 6-foot-6, he still has projection left in his body. He also features an above-average curveball and an average change, while his stuff plays up because he has good deception in his delivery. His arm action is fluid and his command is improving. He's a few years off, although Atlanta has tended to promote pitchers quickly once they show that their command is good enough to handle the next level.
67
Aaron Poreda
LHP
Chicago White Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL:
Rookie (Great Falls)
21
Poreda is still a project, but he brings one undeniable tool to the table. Left-handers with plus velocity (93-97 consistently, with anecdotal reports of 98 plus) and excellent sink to generate ground balls are rare birds, making Poreda a very good value for a late first-round selection. His secondary stuff remains raw. He's messed around with a curveball and slider, with the latter showing more promise, and his low three-quarter arm slot has made it hard for him to master a changeup. He's big and can hold his velocity, but the White Sox should move him slowly to give him time to develop at least one -- preferably two -- average offspeed pitches so he can fulfill his promise as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
68
Kyle Blanks
1B
San Diego Padres
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Lake Elsinore)
21
The Padres have been light on power-hitting prospects for several years now, preferring polished college hitters in the draft who bring more probability to the table but less upside. They snagged Kyle Blanks in the 42nd round in 2004 out of high school, and he exploded this year into their second-best offensive prospect. Blanks is strong and athletic at 6-foot-6; while he's limited to first base, he's more than playable there, but his ticket to the majors is his bat. He has a simple swing with good loft and powers through the ball, keeping his hips in almost perfect sync with his hands for maximum impact. Blanks' zone is big and he can get long when trying to cover pitches down, similar to Richie Sexson, who would be a good comparison for Blanks if the latter can improve his patience.
69
Chris Davis
3B
Texas Rangers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Frisco)
22
We're comfortably in one-big-skill territory in this section of the rankings, and Davis has -- you guessed it -- one big skill: raw power that grades out comfortably at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Davis is extremely strong and powers balls out to right and right center with a pull-oriented approach. His plate discipline is weak and he's susceptible to even average offspeed stuff. His future at third is questionable, with a move to first the most likely outcome.
70
Ian Stewart
3B
Colorado Rockies
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors
22
After his full-season debut Stewart looked like a No. 3 hitter with the potential to hit .300/.400/.550 when he reached his peak, but he's slid backward each year since, and now projects as more of a .280/.350/.440-type hitter who can contribute but isn't a star. Stewart has a lot of extra movement in his swing that limits his contact rate and robs him of some power before he reaches the ball, although he gets good extension when he squares a ball up. He's solid-average or better defensively at third and wouldn't be a drop-off in overall value from Garrett Atkins should the Rockies decide to trade their incumbent third baseman for other help.